Argentine Pope Francis holding a placard calling for Anglo-Argentine talks on the future of the disputed Falklands/Malvinas Islands is a timely reminder that the dispute will not go away. Meanwhile, a monumental change in Britain's political landscape could well be encouraging some in Argentina's political establishment that progress on the Malvinas Sovereignty Question could now be sooner rather than later.
The monumental change I refer to is the rise of Labour left-winger Jeremy Corbyn, who has seemingly been transformed from hard-left backbench MP to front runner for the Labour Party leadership. It is known that Mr Corbyn has some sympathy with Argentina's position on the Falklands/Malvinas dispute.
Argentina itself will go to the polls in just under two months time, as the Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner Presidency draws to a close. The presidencies of both Mrs Kirchner and her late husband Nestor have not only seen Argentina reaffirm it's claim on the remote South Atlantic archipelago, the period has also seen progress that was made on building trading links between mainland Argentina and the archipelago completely reversed.
From a personal perspective, I am a believer that long term compromise between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands/Malvinas is desirable, under the right circumstances. I am a believer that the correct solution would be a land split that balances Argentina's obvious geographical claims against Britain's claims of self-determination on behalf of the Falkland Islanders.
The split of the land would see East Falkland (where the overwhelming majority reside) remain a British Overseas Territory, whilst West Falkland would be transferred gradually to Argentine control. I also believe that such a solution would be acting in the economic interest of the Falklanders.
To highlight my position in more depth, I am going to draw attention to two previous posts I have written on this subject. The links are below:
A Falklands (Malvinas) Compromise
http://andyjwatson1975.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/a-falklands-malvinas-compromise.html
Is the Argentine post-Kirchner Malvinas debate now underway?
http://ajw1975.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/is-argentine-post-kirchner-malvinas.html
Ahead of elections in Argentina in late October, my message to all Argentine Presidential Candidates would be to be wary of cosying up too much to Mr Corbyn. Should he win the Labour leadership contest as expected, a lot of questions will be raised about the future of the Labour Party itself.
Amongst those questions are how viable it will be for a man who has rebelled so much against his own party in the past, to suddenly lead a united party. Another question is the possibility that the party could split, as it did with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) breakaway of the 1980s.
Voices on the Labour Right have been making noises with the aim of discrediting Corbyn. One of those voices is Alistair Campbell, who has been best known as Director of Communications and Strategy for former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair. Campbell has recently referred to Corbyn's foreign policy generally as a minefield, stating his belief that Corbyn's desire for Britain to leave NATO on it's own could cost Labour the 2020 general election.
With the current British Conservative Party being widely perceived as clear blue water conservatism, I will not say that a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party has absolutely no chance of winning Britain's next general election in five years time. But if he did, I would be surprised at this stage if such a left-leaning Labour party could win with any kind of substantial majority.
Taking this uncertainty on board, the Argentines need to examine how they can make progress on the Malvinas question. Should the Argentine Malvinas claim stay as it is without any compromise, and Argentina merely expects close relations with Corbyn to deliver a transfer of sovereignty without any challenge, then all it will serve to do is play into the hands of Conservative politicians who would argue that the United Kingdom's security would be in grave danger under Mr Corbyn!
The monumental change I refer to is the rise of Labour left-winger Jeremy Corbyn, who has seemingly been transformed from hard-left backbench MP to front runner for the Labour Party leadership. It is known that Mr Corbyn has some sympathy with Argentina's position on the Falklands/Malvinas dispute.
Argentina itself will go to the polls in just under two months time, as the Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner Presidency draws to a close. The presidencies of both Mrs Kirchner and her late husband Nestor have not only seen Argentina reaffirm it's claim on the remote South Atlantic archipelago, the period has also seen progress that was made on building trading links between mainland Argentina and the archipelago completely reversed.
From a personal perspective, I am a believer that long term compromise between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands/Malvinas is desirable, under the right circumstances. I am a believer that the correct solution would be a land split that balances Argentina's obvious geographical claims against Britain's claims of self-determination on behalf of the Falkland Islanders.
The split of the land would see East Falkland (where the overwhelming majority reside) remain a British Overseas Territory, whilst West Falkland would be transferred gradually to Argentine control. I also believe that such a solution would be acting in the economic interest of the Falklanders.
To highlight my position in more depth, I am going to draw attention to two previous posts I have written on this subject. The links are below:
A Falklands (Malvinas) Compromise
http://andyjwatson1975.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/a-falklands-malvinas-compromise.html
Is the Argentine post-Kirchner Malvinas debate now underway?
http://ajw1975.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/is-argentine-post-kirchner-malvinas.html
Ahead of elections in Argentina in late October, my message to all Argentine Presidential Candidates would be to be wary of cosying up too much to Mr Corbyn. Should he win the Labour leadership contest as expected, a lot of questions will be raised about the future of the Labour Party itself.
Amongst those questions are how viable it will be for a man who has rebelled so much against his own party in the past, to suddenly lead a united party. Another question is the possibility that the party could split, as it did with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) breakaway of the 1980s.
Voices on the Labour Right have been making noises with the aim of discrediting Corbyn. One of those voices is Alistair Campbell, who has been best known as Director of Communications and Strategy for former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair. Campbell has recently referred to Corbyn's foreign policy generally as a minefield, stating his belief that Corbyn's desire for Britain to leave NATO on it's own could cost Labour the 2020 general election.
With the current British Conservative Party being widely perceived as clear blue water conservatism, I will not say that a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party has absolutely no chance of winning Britain's next general election in five years time. But if he did, I would be surprised at this stage if such a left-leaning Labour party could win with any kind of substantial majority.
Taking this uncertainty on board, the Argentines need to examine how they can make progress on the Malvinas question. Should the Argentine Malvinas claim stay as it is without any compromise, and Argentina merely expects close relations with Corbyn to deliver a transfer of sovereignty without any challenge, then all it will serve to do is play into the hands of Conservative politicians who would argue that the United Kingdom's security would be in grave danger under Mr Corbyn!
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