Saturday 25 April 2015

If majority governments are maybe now a thing of the past, could the moment come for the Tories to accept electoral reform?

There are now less than two weeks before Britain goes to the polls in a general election.  With opinion polls still showing the Conservatives and Labour as neck and neck, Prime Minister David Cameron's best hope of staying in office could be through another coalition.

For those people who have read my posts previously, one may be familiar with a certain favourite phrase of mine.  Now, I wouldn't quite describe David Cameron as a ridiculous specimen of a man, even though he appears to get confused about which football team he supports!  In fact, I consider Cameron to be a generally decent man.  However, there can be little doubt that Cameron has little to no understanding of what life really means for society's poorest.

Had Cameron's Conservatives secured an overall majority in 2010, I believe there would have been even deeper and more brutal cuts to public services.  Despite the need being there to cut the budget deficit, I suggest that the Conservatives with a drive for those deeper cuts would have made themselves unelectable for another generation.  One day they may just thank Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats!

It was John Major who last secured a parliamentary majority for the Tories at a general election in 1992.  I do now wonder when their next majority win will be, even if the now discredited First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system survives.  With a combination of reduced election turnouts and a smaller combined share of the vote for both main parties, surely it is only a matter of time before alternatives to FPTP are looked at again.

Both the Tories and Labour have historically backed First Past the Post because it has always presented each party with a more realistic prospect of forming a government on their own, without the need for coalition partners.  A more proportional system of course makes that less likely.  But for me, a significant question is whether one party should have the legitimacy to govern on their own with just 35% of the vote?

The combined share of the vote held by both the Conservatives and Labour at the 2010 General Election was in fact just a little over 65%.  In relation to trends from previous recent elections, the 65% was hardly a blip.  Indeed, the combined share of the vote held by both main parties, has over time declined dramatically since the general election of 1951 which produced a combined share of 96.8%!

Although the 2011 Alternative Vote Referendum did see a group of Conservatives support electoral reform, all the main Tory big hitters backed FPTP.  Whilst the majority of the Labour Party also backed the status quo in 2011, I do see more potential from Labour in support for much needed electoral change.  Former Labour Cabinet Minister Alan Johnson is known to be a strong supporter of electoral reform, and recently suggested on the BBC's This Week programme that the time may soon come to look once again at the voting system.

In today's Britain there are significant numbers of people who will rule out voting conservative, ranging from people who have been forced out of their homes because of the bedroom tax to people who have suffered under Margaret Thatcher and not forgotten.  I suggest the Tories embracing electoral reform and being forced to work with other parties in coalition more regularly will go some way to shake off that nasty party image.

But how long will it take them to smell the coffee?  Or will they now go on dreaming about a majority government that may never materialise anyway?

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