The British Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg was riding the crest of a wave approximately 4 years ago, as Britons were preparing to go to the polls for a general election. The election campaign comprised of a series of televised debates involving the then Prime Minister Gordon Brown, David Cameron, and Clegg himself. In fact Clegg was seen by many to be the stronger performer.
The 2010 General Election ended 13 years of Labour rule, and the coalition negotiations which followed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats saw Clegg become the Deputy Prime Minister in what has been commonly referred to as the Con-Dem Government. For some political commentators, the scene of PM Dave and Deputy PM Nick in the Downing Street Rose Garden was very touching indeed.
Four years later and Nick Clegg's fortunes could very well be on the wane. It was the pro-EU Clegg who decided to challenge United Kingdom Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage to a series of debates on Britain's membership of the European Union. This was after alienating some Liberal Democrat voters by jumping into bed with the Tories in the first place, breaking his electoral promise on free tuition fees, and insisting on what some people would consider an inappropriate referendum on changing the UK's electoral system.
On the point of electoral reform, I do make no apologies for stating that I am a supporter of changing the UK's discredited First Past the Post Electoral System. But I don't think it is purely the lack of hindsight, that would suggest having the Alternative Vote Referendum just a year into the life of the Con-Dem Government, which would explain bad timing. At the time, Britain was in need of addressing probably the worst recession in generations!
Most Britons will only take an active interest in Politics at the time of the General Election. Other important events such as the Local Government Elections and European Elections are notorious for low turnout. It is a very unfortunate state of affairs, but that is the way it is. The AV referendum only produced a turnout of 42%.
Whilst I believe it would be desirable to see the UK electoral system reformed one day, I do also know it is not an issue that features prominently among many voters' priorities. Even if it had meant the Liberal Democrats fighting possibly one more election under the First Past the Post System, I believe there would have been significantly more interest had the referendum been held close to the same date as the 2015 General Election instead.
In this week's televised EU debate with Farage, Clegg did make some very good points concerning the co-operation of European nations on crime and terrorism, in addition to the point that Norway and Switzerland are not having any say in the regulations for the trading region in which most of their goods and services are sold. But he then let himself down on the final question from the audience, by declaring his view that the EU would be quite similar in 10 years time. It was hardly the smartest thing to say in attempting to woo people to his way of thinking.
The various polls of the British public in the aftermath of the Clegg v Farage debate have indeed suggested a clear victory to Farage. But these polls are hardly a Presidential Election. It is also reasonable to conclude that had Farage been in the Government instead of Clegg, then it may have been different. But that is not the point. It was Clegg who challenged Farage to these debates, not the other way round.
It should also be noted that in Farage, the man in which Clegg has come off second best against, we are hardly talking about some political heavyweight. We are in fact talking about a man who described himself in the televised debate as not being a career politician. Yet Farage favours giving British Overseas Territories representation in the House of Commons. With British subjects in other parts of the world being detached somewhat from the mainland British national interest, could it be possible that Farage sees these people as his best hope of winning a House of Commons seat? Even if this was not the case, it is hardly progressive 21st Century politics is it?
Clegg's current position is not to offer the British people a referendum on EU membership. With opinion polls on membership suggesting that British public opinion is split, the momentum towards a referendum may well be gathering. Although I am on balance on the same side of the fence as Clegg when it comes to arguing for Britain's membership of the EU, I believe Clegg is misjudging the mood of the Country in his refusal to endorse an in-out referendum.
My own personal support for an in-out referendum is not on the basis of believing the British people will ultimately vote to stay in Europe at all. The truth is I don't know how the British people will ultimately vote. I believe irrespective of what Britain would ultimately decide on it's EU future, that Europe is and will continue to be Britain's most important external relationship. Europe is after all the market in which most British products and services are sold. But with the British public divided, the UK needs clarity of where that most important relationship is to be managed from in the future. Should it be from within the EU's institutions or outside those institutions?
I have already voted the same way as the Liberal Democrats in one referendum, and voted on the losing side. It is now possible I may at some point be voting in a second referendum in the same direction as this largely pro-European party. I don't so much fear backing the losing horse in a second referendum. Ultimately there is nothing to fear in democracy. However if Nick Clegg is still Liberal Democrat Leader whenever an EU in-out referendum does finally arrive, the best possible case for Britain staying in the EU may not be made. That would be a tragedy for British democracy.
Clegg's judgement in firstly challenging Farage to the EU debates, and his subsequent performance in those debates, does not breed confidence. If the Liberal Democrats do perform very badly in May's European Elections, I would not be surprised if it is Clegg's very own leadership of the Liberal Democrats that becomes his next serious debate!
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